Bayraktar TB2 drones are useless against Russian regular forces

　The unmanned attack aircraft "Bayraktar TB2" developed by Baikal in Turkey was used by Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War and achieved great results. It is reported that Ukraine will purchase 12 of these aircraft and will additionally license them for production.

　There is a misunderstanding in some reports, but the Bayraktar TB2 is not a disposable suicide drone (loitering drone), but a remote-controlled reconnaissance attack drone that can return and sortie again.

　Compared to the US military's MQ-9 Reaper unmanned attack aircraft, the Bayraktar TB2 is about half the overall length and about one-eighth the weight. For remote control, simple line-of-sight communication (LOS communication) is adopted instead of satellite communication, and the procurement cost is low, so exports have been successful.

Reference: Basic knowledge of military drones (October 19, 2019)

Bayraktar TB2, which cannot operate satisfactorily under enemy air superiority

　Then, will this Bayraktar TB2 drone (unmanned aerial vehicle) be effective against the Russian military, which is hostile to Ukraine? "The answer is no."

Bayraktar TB2 (attack drone)

A-10 Thunderbolt II (Manned Attack Aircraft)

　For example, the US military's A-10 attack aircraft is a powerful ground attack aircraft with heavy armor, but it is widely known that it can only operate satisfactorily under friendly air superiority due to its lack of stealth and slow speed. increase. If so, the Bayraktar TB-2 is smaller and slower than the A-10, so naturally it can only fly freely under friendly air superiority. Neither can survive in airspace where enemy high-speed fighter jets are flying at you.

Reference: Saudi Arabian fighters shot down many Houthi drones and succeeded in air defense (March 9, 2021)

In the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the Armenian army was afraid of surface-to-air missiles and could not aggressively deploy valuable fighter planes, which were few in number, while the Azerbaijan army used various drones without worrying about air battles. I was able to put it in. The Azerbaijani army then introduced an Israeli anti-radar suicide drone to suppress an enemy air defense network consisting of radar and surface-to-air missiles. After that, Bayraktar TB-2 was introduced and destroyed a large number of tanks and armored vehicles.

Reference: Air defense network suppression drone tactics in the Second Karabakh War (December 11, 2020)

　These two factors are the major factors behind the Bayraktar TB-2's great success in the Battle of Karabakh.

　However, the Ukrainian army cannot prepare this premise against the Russian army. First of all, the Ukrainian Air Force is hopeless in securing air superiority against the Russian Air Force. It is necessary to fight on the premise that air superiority has been taken away. And in this state, you can't even go to suppress the enemy's air defense network.

The Bayraktar TB2 is not equipment that can be used aggressively against enemies stronger than allies. The flight speed is slow, there is no stealth, and since it uses line-of-sight communication (LOS communication), it cannot fly at low altitudes over long distances. It can be used only against pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine (Donetsk, Lugansk), but it is almost useless against the Russian regular army.

　Because it is an unmanned aerial vehicle, there is a tactic of actively deploying it without fear of damage even in the presence of enemy air superiority. It would still be cost effective. The Bayraktar TB2 is a small reconnaissance attack drone that can be respawned, and the price is quite low, but it still costs 500 to 600 million yen per unit. It costs several times more than cruise missiles, so if it can't be reused many times, it's not worth the cost of procurement.

　In the face of the Russian regular army, the Bayraktar TB2 cannot be carelessly put into dangerous attack missions, and will be forced to carry out reconnaissance, surveillance and observation. Even then, if you only have 12, you won't last long if you keep throwing them in enemy air superiority.

　It is likely that when Ukraine purchased the Bayraktar TB2, it was only considering pro-Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine, and had no plans to deal with the main force of the Russian regular army.